The Oscar nominations for the 2018 year of films was released this morning. Many expectations were fulfilled and there were some surprises. Overall, I am somewhat disappointed with some of the choices, or lack thereof, as many films were overlooked and or not even nominated. I am going to go by category for each paragraph so if you care about one thing over another then you can scroll and find what you want.
Let's start with the acting categories and I'm gonna start off with the biggest surprise, at least for me. Regina King, in my opinion, has the Best Supporting Actress win pretty much locked but it was a surprise this morning to see that Marina De Tavira was nominated as well in this category for her role in Alfonso Cuaron's Mexican drama, Roma. She wasn't nominated in the Critics Choice, the SAGS, the Globes, or anywhere during awards season. Considering the nominations at other award shows, Tavira pretty much beat out Claire Foy from her role in First Man. First Man was also beat out of a Best Actor nomination for Ryan Gosling. I think William Dafoe beat out Gosling of this spot for his role in At Eternity's Gate. I haven't seen this film yet so I can't judge the oversight. Another actor that, in my opinion, got snubbed was Ethan Hawke for his role in First Reformed. I wasn't as big of a fan of this movie as some other people, but Hawke really deserved that nomination. It's the best performance of his career, but maybe he will get his recognition some other year. By far my biggest complaint with the acting categories is the exclusion of Toni Collette for her haunting performance in Hereditary. The Academy usually doesn't go for genre movies, but Collette, in my opinion, gave the best performance of last year and it's heartbreaking to not see her name on the list. She was nominated at the Critics Choice, but sadly that nomination didn't translate to the Oscars. 4 of the nominees were pretty much locked, but the 5th spot was going to be a gamble and Yalitzia Aparicio beat out the other candidates for her leading role in Roma. I'm not surprised with the Best Actor category, except for Dafoe and Hawke, since all nominees were killing it earlier in the season.
Let's move on to another category: Directing. I'm sure Cuaron is going to turn out victorious in this category, but it was surprising to see that Pawel Pawlikowski was nominated for his Polish film Cold War (originally Zimna Wojna). I have yet to see this, but I'm sure he is deserving of it. Lee, Lanthimos are both very deserving, but I'm a bit hazy on Mckay for his movie, Vice. I'm seeing Vice tonight so maybe my opinion will be different tomorrow. Bradley Cooper seemed like a lock-on before this morning, but he ended up not landing a nomination. His slot most likely went to Pawlikowski.
The next category of discussion is Screenplay, both Original and Adapted. I'm happy to see that the Academy has been diversifying these categories and not just splitting the loot amongst the Best Picture nominees. Netflix's The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Paul Schrader's First Reformed, Barry Jenkins' If Beale Street Could Talk and Can You Ever Forgive Me? are the only nominees that aren't also in the Best Picture category. Overall, these are good choices. I would've loved to see Eighth Grade and maybe A Quiet Place get nominated in the Original category, but those were probably longshots.
This paragraph won't be long, but up next is Cinematography. It was surprising to see that Linus Sandgren was shut out for his work on First Man. Caleb Deschanel surprised many with his nomination for his work on Never Look Away. Much like Tavira, Deschanel hasn't shown up at all during awards season and may have taken Sandgren's shot. I'm okay with Matthew Libatique for his work on A Star is Born, but I would've rather seen James Laxton get nominated for his beautiful work on If Beale Street Could Talk.
I won't go over the technical categories so I'll skip ahead to Best Original Score. First Man, yet again, is overlooked. For the first time in a while, I'm not sure who will win this category. First Man was winning in this category throughout the last couple of weeks of awards season, but because of its exclusion from the Academy list, it's hard to say. I think it'll go to Nicholas Britell for If Beale Street Could Talk which, in my opinion, should've been succeeding in this category instead of First Man.
My next topic is Best Animated Film. I'm really happy with these choices. I'm glad the Academy makes an effort to try and nominate at least one Japanese anime film each year, with this year being Mirai, even though they never win. For the first time in forever, Disney isn't the frontrunner. Spiderman: Into The Spiderverse has the lock on this category so it would be surprising if it didn't win.
I saved the best for last. My last topic will be Best Picture. There are only 8 nominees this year and overall, there are some choices that I'm a bit peeved by. Bohemian Rhapsody scored a nomination which isn't surprising with its victory at the Globes recently. I'm positive that it won't win the Oscar, but (and I'm being completely honest) it doesn't even deserve a nomination in the first place. The film has many praiseworthy aspects and Rami Malek deserves that acting nomination, but it was somewhat disappointing and has more problems than praise. I won't write a complete review so I'll just leave it at that. Another disappointing pick was Vice. Again, I'm seeing it tonight so maybe my opinion will change, but just by looking at the critic's scores it has it's strange to see how well it's been performing this season. The most controversial choice this morning was Black Panther landing a nomination. This movie's performance this season has been the topic of much controversy and discussion. Audiences are split as to whether it deserved to be in the race at all, but it's been nominated and there's no backsies. In my opinion, I think it was a wonderful movie and is definitely among Marvel's best entries, but I'm failing to see anything award-worthy about the movie. We all know exactly why it was nominated, but there were other films that deserved a spot. Who knows, maybe this is the next step into diversifying the playing field and maybe future seasons will be completely different. If Black Panther really does have an impact with the Academy and proves to have benefits in the future then my complaint will be invalid. There were only 8 slots this year so I'm also failing to understand why they can't just add a slot or two to fit in some other worthy movies. They've nominated 12 before, but for some reason have stuck with 8 this year. Movies I think that were shut out of a Best Picture nomination were If Beale Street Could Talk and First Man.
One of my biggest upsets from this morning was the exclusion of Won't You Be My Neighbor? for the Best Documentary Feature category. It has been sweeping this category throughout the entire season so it was extremely shocking to see it not even be nominated. It was the only Documentary I saw this year, but I loved it and was looking forward to what was supposed to be kind of an easy win.
My thoughts are going to parallel many other articles you might find on the internet, but we all kind of had the same expectations and it's surprising to see expectations not go through. I can't wait to see what will happen come February 24th. We all have films that we want to win, but through what I have seen across all the boards and the articles and the lists, there is generally a higher chance of winning for some candidates over others so here are my predictions as to who will win the Oscars this year.
Best Picture: Roma, If not then Green Book I think is the close runner-up.
Best Actor: Christian Bale, Vice
Best Actress: Glenn Close, The Wife or Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Best Supporting Actress: Regina King: If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Director: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Best Original Screenplay: Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Best Adapted Screenplay: Spike Lee, Charlie Watchel, Davis Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, BlacKkKlansmen
Best Cinematography: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Best Original Score: Nicholas Britell, If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Original Song: "Shallow" from A Star Is Born
Best Animated Film: Spiderman: Into The Spiderverse
Best Foreign Film: Cold War (Zimna Wojna), if Roma does end up winning Best Picture then they might give this category to someone else and it'll probably be Cold War considering Pawlikowski's directing nomination. Then again, Roma could win in both categories.
Best Documentary Feature: Minding The Gap, I honestly don't know what to predict since the Mr. Rogers documentary isn't on the list so I'm just going to choose this one.
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